Inflation Bites: Which Grocery Products Are On Track For The Biggest Price Hikes?

Inflation Bites: Which Grocery Products Are On Track For The Biggest Price Hikes?

4 minute read time

Groceries have always been a big part of any household’s budget – but the past year has been a test for many. Inflation rose to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine, labor shortages, supply chain disruption and pent-up demand following Covid. By July, food-at-home prices were 10.9% higher than they were for the same month last year.

Our reliance on Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe, has led to shortages of ingredients like grain, cooking oil and chickpeas.

The sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of the conflict have sent fertilizer and energy prices soaring too, leaving manufacturers and retailers with no choice but to pass the costs onto consumers, or reduce product sizes (shrinkflation). Either way, it means consumers are getting less value-for-money at the checkout.

Of course, people are also seeing their budgets stretched by rising energy bills, made worse by the fact that wages have been stagnating since the early ‘70s.

Counting the cost of the weekly shop

Our research shows that inflation could cause the average weekly shopping basket for a family of four to jump from $227 to $291.60 – a rise of 28%. The same basket would cost an eye-watering $656.47 by 2030 if food inflation continued to rise at the current rate.

Consumers are now well-aware that they’re paying more at the checkout but which products are most responsible for pushing up household grocery costs?

To find out, we compared the price changes on a shopping list of 50 grocery products using the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Butter topped the list, having seen a 26.4% rise over the past year, as dairy farmers grappled with high energy, labor and feed costs. The cost of butter could jump to $7.50 in a year’s time, or a staggering $35.16 by 2030 if inflation continues at the same rate. Milk also appeared in the top 10, as did flour and cooking oil, most likely due to the war in Ukraine.

ItemType (if needed)QuantityCost (Aug 2022)YoY % increasePotential cost (Aug 2023)Potential cost (Aug 2024)Potential cost (Aug 2025)Potential cost (Aug 2026)Potential cost (Aug 2027)Potential cost (Aug 2028)Potential cost (Aug 2029)Potential cost (Aug 2030)
ButterCalcium Spread Tub45oz$5.9326.4$7.50$8.62$10.90$13.78$17.41$22.01$27.82$35.16
FlourAll purpose flour10lb$3.6422.7$4.47$5.48$6.72$8.25$10.12$12.42$15.24$18.70
HoneyValue Organic Honey12 oz$4.5221$5.47$6.62$8.01$9.69$11.72$14.19$17.16$20.77
Cooking OilOlive Oil17 fl oz$2.8820.8$3.48$4.20$5.08$6.13$7.41$8.95$10.81$13.06
CoffeeRoast ground coffee40.3oz$13.9220.3$16.75$20.15$24.23$29.15$35.07$42.19$50.76$61.06
SoupChicken Noodle Soup10.75oz$4.7819.1$5.69$6.78$8.08$9.62$11.45$13.64$16.25$19.35
Cured MeatsItalian Dry, Peppered, and Calabrese Salami12oz$9.9818$11.78$13.90$16.40$19.35$22.83$26.94$31.79$37.51
ChickenChicken breast family pack4.7 – 6.25lb$15.0217.6$17.66$20.77$24.43$28.73$33.78$39.73$46.72$54.95
Breakfast CerealCheerios18.8oz$4.7816.8$5.58$6.52$7.62$8.90$10.39$12.14$14.18$16.56
Milk2% Reduced Fat Milk128 Fl Oz$3.5115.6$4.06$4.69$5.42$6.27$7.25$8.38$9.68$11.19
YoghurtOrganic Probiotic32oz$4.4614.9$5.12$5.89$6.77$7.77$8.93$10.26$11.79$13.55
Baking PowderDouble Acting Baking Powder8.1oz$1.4214.9$1.63$1.87$2.15$2.47$2.84$3.27$3.75$4.31
RiceWhite Rice32oz$1.4614.5$1.67$1.91$2.19$2.51$2.87$3.29$3.77$4.31
VinegarPompeian Balsamic Vinegar16fl oz$3.8414.2$4.39$5.01$5.72$6.53$7.46$8.52$9.73$11.11
Stock CubesKnorr Cube Bouillon Chicken24 stock cubes$2.0014.2$2.28$2.61$2.98$3.40$3.88$4.44$5.07$5.79
Mixed HerbsGarlic and Herb seasoning5.50oz$3.7614.2$4.29$4.90$5.60$6.40$7.30$8.34$9.52$10.88
BasilDried basil0.42oz$4.3814.2$5.00$5.71$6.52$7.45$8.51$9.72$11.10$12.67
OreganoDried oregano0.87oz$1.0014.2$1.14$1.30$1.49$1.70$1.94$2.22$2.53$2.89
CorianderDried coriander1.4oz$4.4714.2$5.10$5.83$6.66$7.60$8.68$9.92$11.32$12.93
Chilli powderChilli powder2.5oz$2.6214.2$2.99$3.42$3.90$4.46$5.09$5.81$6.64$7.58
PaprikaPaprika powder2.12oz$3.1214.2$3.56$4.07$4.65$5.31$6.06$6.92$7.90$9.03
CuminGround cumin2.31oz$4.7114.2$5.38$6.14$7.01$8.01$9.15$10.45$11.93$13.63
GingerGround ginger1.64oz$4.5314.2$5.17$5.91$6.75$7.70$8.80$10.05$11.48$13.10
NutmegGround nutmeg1.8oz$4.9914.2$5.70$6.51$7.43$8.49$9.69$11.07$12.64$14.44
PotatoesRusset potatoes10lb$4.9713.3$5.63$6.38$7.23$8.19$9.28$10.51$11.91$13.50
SaltSea salt26oz$2.9413.3$3.33$3.77$4.28$4.84$5.49$6.22$7.05$7.98
PepperGround black pepper6oz$4.6713.3$5.29$5.99$6.79$7.70$8.72$9.88$11.19$12.68
BreadWhite Bread20oz$3.1312.9$3.53$3.99$4.50$5.09$5.74$6.48$7.32$8.26
Orange JuicePulp Free89fl oz$6.4812.9$7.32$8.26$9.33$10.53$11.89$13.42$15.15$17.11
Bottled WaterNA16fl oz$5.3612.9$6.05$6.83$7.71$8.71$9.83$11.10$12.53$14.15
CheeseMedium Cheese Block16oz$6.0012.6$6.76$7.61$8.57$9.65$10.86$12.23$13.77$15.50
PulsesBlack Lentils8oz$6.9911.1$7.77$8.63$9.59$10.65$11.83$13.15$14.60$16.23
EggsFree Large AA White Eggs18 eggs$4.9610.9$5.50$6.10$6.77$7.50$8.32$9.23$10.23$11.35
PeasFrozen peas12oz$0.8410.6$0.93$1.03$1.14$1.26$1.39$1.54$1.70$1.88
Mixed VegetablesMixed vegetables32oz$2.2210.6$2.46$2.72$3.00$3.32$3.67$4.06$4.49$4.97
OnionsWhite onion3lb$5.489.3$5.99$6.55$7.16$7.82$8.55$9.34$10.21$11.16
GarlicFresh garlic sleeve0.54oz$1.789.3$1.95$2.13$2.32$2.54$2.78$3.03$3.32$3.63
White FishFresh Fillet0.93 – 1.12lb$7.688.7$8.35$9.07$9.86$10.72$11.65$12.67$13.77$14.97
Oily FishSalmon0.95 – 1.05 lb$10.778.7$11.71$12.73$13.83$15.04$16.34$17.77$19.31$20.99
Fish FingersBreaded Fish1 box$5.488.1$5.92$6.40$6.92$7.48$8.09$8.74$9.45$10.22
BeerBud Light12fl oz$7.484.6$7.82$8.18$8.56$8.95$9.37$9.80$10.25$10.72
Red meat7% fat lean ground beef1lb$6.233.4$6.44$6.66$6.89$7.12$7.36$7.61$7.87$8.14
WineRed Lambrusco1.5lt$8.982.3$9.19$9.40$9.61$9.84$10.06$10.29$10.53$10.77
TomatoesGrape tomatoes10 oz$2.48-1.4$2.45$2.41$2.38$2.34$2.31$2.28$2.25$2.22
  Total$227.01 $257.36$291.60$332.01$378.87$433.29$496.60$570.37$656.47

Delving into the top 20, we can see how much other store cupboard staples have risen. A 32oz pot of yogurt could cost $5.12 by next year, compared to $4.46 currently.

A pack of pasta (spaghetti) and white rice both increased by 14.5% from $1.84 and $1.46 respectively over the past year, so they’d cost $2.11 and $1.67 by August 2023. Pasta and rice – often the basis for a budget meal – are still among the cheapest items on our list but the cost hikes still add up over time if bought regularly.

However, our research also revealed some inflation-busting options. Beer and wine lovers will be happy to see a liter bottle of red lambrusco would rise by just 2.3% from $8.98 to $9.19, while a six-pack of Bud light would climb by just 34 cents to $7.82.

There’s good news for health-conscious shoppers too. Our findings suggest that even if inflation continued, there’d only be marginal increases in the price of white fish, oily fish, lean beef and vegetables.

Commenting on the findings, Kerri Ferraioli, nutritionist at YorkTest, said:

“We all hope that the measures the Federal Reserve is taking to curb inflation will work, so we won’t see the cost of groceries rise to the levels shown in our research. However, the price rises we’ve seen in the past year is putting pressure on households already struggling to pay the bills. Our shopping basket contained essential items that are difficult to cut back on.”

She added that the current situation is particularly difficult for people who suffer from food allergies and intolerances:

“These shoppers usually pay a premium for gluten free bread or milk alternatives already but there are options. If you suffer from Celiac Disease, for instance, always check whether the extra costs of buying gluten free products can be included in your medical expenses.”

“While there might not be the same financial support available for other allergies and intolerances, there are plenty of recipes that avoid the most common trigger foods, like dairy, which are now also the most expensive. Our vegan curry is both dairy and gluten free, and is packed full of healthy and budget-friendly vegetables.

“If you suspect you suffer from a food allergy or intolerance, it’s always best to take a food sensitivity test so you know for sure. Elimination diets are extremely difficult to follow, and may result in excluding entire food groups that are actually healthy, enjoyable and cheap. Or you might be paying more for alternatives when you don’t really need to. We also have a number of expert nutritionists who can help you come up with ideas for tasty alternatives to your trigger foods.”


This research is based on what a typical US family of four would consume in a week. We looked at how much current Walmart prices have risen in the past year and used the CPI to estimate how much key products would cost if prices rose at the same rate.

Data is correct as of August 2022.


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